The crypto world lit up this weekend as analysts projected a hypothetical $515 billion valuation for Tether—placing it among the world’s top 20 companies by market cap. The forecast, sparked by investor Jon Ma’s financial modeling, positioned Tether ahead of giants like Costco and Coca-Cola. But while the figure made headlines, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino stepped in to clarify the context—and what the market might be missing.
Jon Ma’s Model: Tether Ahead of Coca-Cola?
The buzz originated from a tweet by investor Jon Ma, who explained how Tether could hypothetically reach a $515B market cap if it went public today. The model assumed:
- $13B in 2024 profits (with $7B from Treasuries and Repos, and $5B from Bitcoin and gold gains)
- A projected $7.4B EBITDA for 2025
- A 69.3x EBITDA multiplier (based on Circle’s valuation)
The logic follows from Circle’s own IPO, but even Jon Ma acknowledged the model relies on a highly optimistic EBITDA multiple, which may not hold under scrutiny.
Ardoino Pushes Back: “A Beautiful Number, But…”
CEO Paolo Ardoino addressed the hype directly. In a tweet, he welcomed the optimism but cautioned that the $515B figure might be overly bullish given current market conditions—even though he admitted it was “a beautiful number.”
He went on to reaffirm that Tether has no intention of going public, stating that the company is thriving as a private entity and remains laser-focused on growth and stability.
“No need to go public.” – Paolo Ardoino in response to an X user.
What Investors Might Be Missing
The broader takeaway isn’t just about valuation. Ardoino’s mention of Tether’s growing reserves of Bitcoin and gold points to a strategic shift in asset backing—moving beyond US Treasuries. This could signal:
- A hedge against USD inflation
- Long-term alignment with Bitcoin as a digital reserve asset
- Greater independence from U.S. monetary policy
In other words, the valuation hype might be distracting from Tether’s deeper pivot toward crypto-native resilience.
Final Thoughts: Valuation vs. Vision
While a $515B valuation headline certainly grabs attention, Ardoino’s remarks underscore a more grounded vision. Tether isn’t chasing Wall Street. It’s building a robust, reserve-backed infrastructure that quietly reshapes global stablecoin dominance.
And in an era where regulation, inflation, and market instability threaten centralized financial systems, that might be worth far more than any IPO.
