The Bitcoin price is holding strong above $109K, but signs are emerging that something bigger may be brewing. As exchange reserves hit multi-year lows and market momentum builds, analysts are eyeing a potential breakout that could catch many off guard.
Bitcoin Price Analysis – Bulls Hold $109K as Support
Bitcoin continues to show strength at the start of the week, consolidating above $109,000 after briefly testing $112,000 last week. The daily chart reveals a classic bullish structure, with higher lows since mid-April and a strong breakout above $100K that flipped resistance into support.
Source: Tradingview
Trading volume remains healthy, and price action is holding within a narrow range — typically a sign of consolidation before the next move. As of today, Bitcoin trades at $109,760, with minor resistance at $112,000 and a possible breakout target near $120,000 if momentum persists.
Exchange Reserves Hit Record Lows – Bitcoin Supply Is Drying Up
Perhaps the most important metric right now is off-chain: exchange reserves have dropped to their lowest levels since early 2018.
According to new data from CryptoQuant , less than 2.4 million BTC remain on centralized exchanges — a dramatic drop from over 3.4 million BTC in 2022. This decline signals aggressive accumulation by long-term holders and institutions who are moving coins to cold storage.
Historically, sharp declines in exchange reserves have preceded major price rallies. With supply shrinking and demand holding strong, Bitcoin may be entering a new phase of supply-driven bullish momentum.
Macro Conditions and Institutional Appetite
The broader narrative also supports higher BTC prices:
- Bitcoin ETFs have seen over $900M in net inflows last week, with BlackRock, Fidelity, and others accumulating aggressively.
- The Fed is signaling dovish tones ahead of summer, increasing risk appetite across markets.
As institutional frameworks mature and regulatory clarity improves, Bitcoin is increasingly seen not as a speculative asset — but as digital monetary infrastructure.
Final Thoughts – $120K Incoming?
With exchange reserves at historic lows, price consolidating above $109K, and ETF inflows rising, the fundamental and technical picture for Bitcoin remains extremely bullish.
If BTC breaks above $112,000 decisively, a push toward $120,000–$125,000 could unfold quickly, especially if supply continues to tighten. However, traders should still watch for volatility, especially around macro announcements and ETF rebalancing periods.
The next few weeks could be pivotal — and Bitcoin appears ready.
