The Bitcoin top isn’t in—at least not yet.
That’s the message from crypto analyst João Wedson, who believes the market still has room to run before hitting its next all-time high. While many traders are focused on short-term volatility, Wedson is tracking a long-term indicator on Alphractak backed by over 200 tested algorithms. According to him, this signal has perfectly identified every Bitcoin peak so far—and it hasn’t fired.
His latest post is stirring conversation across X, as investors wonder whether Bitcoin’s true breakout is still ahead. Could 2025 bring the final leg of the bull run?
A Signal That Has Never Missed
João Wedson’s model is no ordinary indicator. Built over years and refined using hundreds of algorithmic backtests, it’s designed to spot the exact moment Bitcoin hits its market top—not a range, not a guess. He claims it nailed the 2021 divergence to the day and has worked consistently across all cycles.
What makes this model so intriguing is its simplicity in application.
The number isn’t random. $69,000 was Bitcoin’s former all-time high, and the model expects a retest to coincide with a precise internal threshold. Until that point, Wedson says he won’t be exiting his positions—”no hesitation, no mercy.”
Why the Signal Hasn’t Triggered Yet
Despite Bitcoin reaching highs above $105,000 recently, the signal is still inactive. That may surprise some traders, but Wedson believes this lag is part of the model’s design—it filters out volatility, clickbait headlines, and temporary price spikes.
The implication? We could still be months away from the cycle peak.
This window could offer one of the last meaningful chances to accumulate before the macro top is in. And unlike sentiment-driven metrics, this model is rooted in structured data, including network behavior and on-chain activity patterns.
Bitcoin Price Outlook for 2025
If the model is right, the most explosive phase of Bitcoin’s rally may still lie ahead. Historically, once this signal activates, BTC enters a short and aggressive move upward before topping out. That would align with macro narratives in 2025: rising ETF inflows, institutional positioning, and growing demand from sovereign wealth funds.
Even if we’re already above $100,000, there’s a psychological and strategic difference between being in a bull market and nearing a cycle top. João Wedson’s model reminds investors that timing matters more than price when making big portfolio decisions.
Final Thoughts: What This Bitcoin Forecast Means for 2025
Crypto markets are notoriously noisy, but sometimes the best signals come from silence. The fact that this trusted Bitcoin top model hasn’t triggered yet is, paradoxically, the most bullish sign yet.If Wedson is right—and his track record says he might be—the next few months could offer both a final opportunity and a warning. Once that signal hits, the countdown to the peak begins. Until then, the market remains open for business.
