Speaking at the NEXTPredict conference in New York on Thursday, JB Mackenzie, Robinhood’s VP and general manager for futures and prediction markets, said price contracts tied to bitcoin, crude oil and gold are now among the fastest-growing products on the platform. Sports is still the largest category by volume, but Mackenzie said he’s watching these price volatility contracts start to dominate the marketplace in terms of growth.
The clearest sign is that last month’s biggest single event contract on the platform wasn’t a game at all. It was the Federal Reserve’s September interest rate decision. Traders are also shortening their time horizons. Some crypto contracts now settle in as little as 15 minutes, a long way from the weekly contracts that were typical when these products first appeared.
For anyone unfamiliar, prediction markets let users buy contracts on whether something will happen, and the price reflects the market’s implied probability. A bitcoin contract might ask whether the coin will be above a set price at a set time, which lets someone take a view on the market without owning any crypto. Robinhood offers these through a partnership with Kalshi, a federally regulated exchange.
The timing is not an accident. Sports contracts are facing legal challenges from state gambling regulators, which puts a question mark over how much of that market will stay available. Robinhood has already adjusted once, scaling back some event contracts in April amid insider trading concerns. Financial contracts give the company a growth lane that doesn’t depend on how those fights turn out.
There is also a business case that goes beyond the contracts themselves. Mackenzie described prediction markets as a gateway. Customers who arrive for event contracts often go on to trade stocks, crypto, futures and options, and some end up opening retirement accounts. Robinhood now has 11 separate business lines each generating more than $100 million a year, and he suggested prediction markets could be the fastest-growing of the lot.
It also fits a pattern in Robinhood’s results. Crypto trading revenue has been under pressure for much of the past year as bitcoin prices slid, with newer products like prediction markets picking up the slack. Coinbase and Gemini offer similar products, so the race to build out contracts beyond sports and politics is only getting more crowded.
