Bitcoin demonstrated an unexpected degree of resilience on Monday, recovering from an intraday low of $70,526 to reach $72,629 by early afternoon despite the announcement of a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz that sent oil prices surging toward $105 per barrel and initially rattled risk assets globally.
The bounce from the weekend’s lows — Bitcoin had been trading above $73,000 on Saturday before the collapse of Iran peace talks and the subsequent blockade announcement sent it briefly below $71,000 — was accompanied by approximately $59 million in short position liquidations, a figure analysts interpreted as evidence of persistent underlying buying interest.
The contrast with Bitcoin’s behaviour when the Iran war first began in late February is instructive. In that initial shock, the cryptocurrency fell approximately 20 percent within days. On Monday, despite arguably more alarming news — two simultaneous blockades of the world’s most important energy shipping lane — Bitcoin declined only around two percent before recovering. That compressed volatility response suggests the crypto market has been pricing in ongoing Middle East risk for weeks and no longer treats each development as categorically new information.
Ethereum followed a similar pattern, briefly falling below $2,200 before stabilising around $2,185. XRP touched $1.32 at the session low before recovering marginally. The broader crypto market capitalisation dipped to approximately $2.41 trillion, a decline of roughly one percent over 24 hours — a modest reaction by historical standards to geopolitical escalation of this magnitude.
The key structural argument for Bitcoin’s relative resilience is the sustained institutional buying that has absorbed selling pressure throughout the year. Strategy, which holds over 766,000 Bitcoin at an average cost of $75,694, has been buying consistently regardless of price action. Bitcoin ETF inflows have continued to provide a reliable demand floor. The IEA’s warning that oil market emergency reserves may run dry in mid-April — coinciding exactly with this week — adds urgency to the diplomatic timeline and potentially creates a scenario where a resolution to the strait crisis triggers a sharp commodity price decline and a corresponding risk-on rally across crypto.
