Bitcoin continued its recovery toward the $75,000 resistance level on Thursday, trading in the mid-$74,000 range as the broader risk asset environment benefited from Iran ceasefire diplomacy and the Nasdaq’s extended winning streak. The combination of a weakening oil price, record US equity markets and improving geopolitical sentiment has drawn buyers back into the crypto market after months in which the US-Iran conflict suppressed risk appetite across asset classes.
Bitcoin has recovered from a year-to-date low of approximately $58,900 reached in February, when the conflict began and investors reduced exposure to speculative assets broadly. Since that trough, the recovery has been meaningful but not clean, repeatedly running into the $75,000-$76,000 resistance band where concentrated sell orders from larger holders have capped price action. Tuesday’s brief touch of $75,900 was the highest level since February 5 but failed to produce the decisive daily close above $76,000 that analysts say is needed to confirm a genuine trend change.
K33 Research’s head of research Vetle Lunde has drawn attention to a specific technical pattern that he says historically precedes sharp upside moves. Funding rates on Bitcoin perpetual futures at Binance have remained negative for 46 consecutive days even as Bitcoin’s price has risen and open interest has increased. That unusual combination indicates that new short positions are being added rather than closed, creating mechanical conditions for a squeeze if buying pressure continues to build. “The 30-day average funding rate has now been negative for 46 straight days,” Lunde said, “matching the extended bearish positioning seen during past market stress periods.”
Ethereum has been the stronger performer in recent sessions, outperforming Bitcoin as risk-on sentiment has deepened. Ether ETFs recorded their strongest week of net inflows in 2026 during the period, a signal that institutional capital is selectively re-engaging. When Ethereum outperforms Bitcoin during a recovery phase, it typically signals broader participation across the crypto market rather than a Bitcoin-specific bounce, and the current pattern fits that characterisation.
Total cryptocurrency market capitalisation expanded to approximately $2.52 trillion during Monday’s session, the strongest reading in months. Short liquidations dominated the mechanics of that session, with $446.75 million in forced short covering out of $549 million in total liquidations across the crypto market, a ratio that confirms buying pressure was being amplified rather than simply driven by new long positions.
The SEC’s CLARITY Act roundtable, which convened on Thursday, was watched closely within the crypto industry for signals about regulatory direction on asset classification. The event had been identified as a historically bullish catalyst when outcomes are constructive, as regulatory clarity reduces the uncertainty premium embedded in crypto valuations. Details from the sessions were being processed by participants as trading continued.
Bitcoin remains approximately 40% below the all-time high of $126,000 reached in 2025, and the structural drivers of that drawdown have not fully resolved. The US-Iran conflict, its oil price effects, sustained negative sentiment readings and the Federal Reserve’s reluctance to cut rates have collectively suppressed the risk environment that Bitcoin’s most bullish scenarios require. Any resolution of the ceasefire situation would remove the single most significant macro headwind currently weighing on risk assets globally.
