The race for crypto ETF approvals is heating up—and XRP ETF just surged to the front of the pack. According to Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, the probability of an XRP spot ETF being approved by the SEC in 2025 has now reached 95%. This puts XRP in the same high-confidence category as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin.
While XRP’s price has yet to react with a breakout, the increased likelihood of ETF approval is placing the token back in the spotlight. For investors, this development could mark a critical turning point in XRP’s long battle with regulators—and a major opportunity ahead of what many expect to be an explosive altcoin cycle.
SEC Signals and Analyst Confidence Fuel Optimism
James Seyffart’s latest post on X confirms a major shift in sentiment at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The regulator appears to be increasingly receptive to spot crypto ETF filings—particularly for tokens that it is likely to view as commodities.
In the updated chart shared by Seyffart, XRP is listed alongside Solana, Litecoin, and Dogecoin with a 95% approval probability. The firms behind the XRP ETF applications include industry giants like Grayscale, Bitwise, and 21Shares. The final SEC deadline for the decision is October 17, 2025, but an approval could arrive sooner.
SEC engagement is “a very positive sign,” Seyffart noted, underlining a broader regulatory thaw that could open the floodgates for institutional crypto products.
XRP Price Still Rangebound – But Volatility Could Be Near
Despite the bullish ETF news, XRP has yet to break out of its current price range. The token is hovering just above the $2.00 mark, down from recent local highs near $2.60.
Market watchers are closely monitoring the $1.90 support level. A breakdown below that line could trigger short-term selling, while any sudden momentum above $2.20 might confirm a breakout rally driven by ETF speculation.
Source: Tradingview
Trading volume remains steady, and open interest on derivatives platforms has started to climb, suggesting that traders are positioning ahead of a potential announcement. Historical patterns show that ETF-related news often results in delayed price reactions—until filings become headline material or approvals are officially confirmed.
What an XRP ETF Could Mean for the Market
The approval of a spot XRP ETF would represent a major milestone—not just for Ripple, but for the broader crypto ecosystem. It would legitimize XRP as a commodity in the eyes of the SEC, resolve long-standing uncertainties following Ripple’s legal battles, and potentially bring billions in institutional capital to the asset.
Moreover, ETF listings are often seen as catalysts for price discovery. As seen with Bitcoin and Ethereum, the mere prospect of ETF approval has historically drawn in new investor interest, tightened supply on exchanges, and triggered upward price pressure.
If the trend continues, XRP could be poised for a significant rerating in the coming months, especially as it battles to reclaim its all-time high above $3.00.
Final Thoughts: What This Means for XRP and the ETF Race
With Bloomberg analysts placing XRP among the most likely ETF approvals in 2025, the stage is now set for renewed investor attention. While the token’s price remains cautious, the fundamentals behind the ETF narrative are strengthening quickly.
For investors tracking the XRP ETF approval 2025, the key date to watch is October 17. But if the SEC continues to signal openness in the coming weeks, we could see pre-approval momentum building long before then.
XRP is no longer just a legal recovery play—it’s entering the institutional arena.
