Retail investors have been spooked by crypto crashing in recent days, and many are wondering if it will recover after Bitcoin reclaimed $100,000.
Bitcoin has fallen below its short-term holder (STH) realized price for the third time in the current market cycle, signaling potential weakness and raising questions about the cryptocurrency’s near-term trajectory.
Historically, the STH realized price has acted as a key support level during bull markets, with previous breakdowns prompting volatility and market uncertainty. Analysts note that while Bitcoin has repeatedly rebounded after prior dips, the current decline underscores the fragility of short-term investor sentiment.
Key Levels and Historical Patterns
Currently, Bitcoin trades below the STH realized price, which stands at approximately $113,000. Earlier in this cycle, similar drops occurred in September 2024 and April 2025. On both occasions, the price later rebounded toward the realized price at around $88,500.
If historical patterns hold, Bitcoin could approach this $88,500 level before recovering and moving back above the STH realized price, maintaining the cycle of declines and recoveries observed in previous months. Analysts caution, however, that a sustained break below $88,500 could signal the end of the bull market, potentially pushing the price down to the long-term holder (LTH) realized price near $56,000.
Why is Crypto Crashing: NUPL Indicators Show Weakening Sentiment
On-chain metrics provide further insight into market dynamics. The STH Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator, which measures whether short-term holders are in profit, currently sits at -0.1, indicating that these investors are down approximately 10%.
In prior cycles, trend reversals typically began near -0.2, which aligns with a potential drop toward the $88,500 level. The declining STH NUPL reading suggests that short-term holders may continue selling, adding downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price.
Meanwhile, the LTH NUPL indicator, which tracks long-term holder profits, has declined to 0.66 from a cycle high of 0.75. Historically, a fall below 0.6 signals that the market cycle may be ending, while a drop below 0.5 has confirmed such a scenario in the past. While neither threshold has been breached, a continued price decline could eventually push LTH metrics into warning territory.
Market Outlook
The combined readings from STH and LTH indicators suggest that Bitcoin could face further corrections in the near term. Analysts caution that the next few weeks will be critical in determining whether the bull trend remains intact.
If Bitcoin manages to hold above the realized price, it would indicate underlying strength in the market, keeping hopes for new highs alive. Conversely, a sustained drop toward or below $88,500 could confirm a weakening cycle, testing investor confidence and potentially signaling the start of a broader market correction.
Will Crypto Recover?
While short-term indicators point to caution, long-term metrics still reflect some resilience among investors holding for extended periods. The divergence between short-term losses and long-term accumulation highlights the mixed sentiment in the market.
Overall, Bitcoin’s next moves around its realized price levels will likely define the immediate trajectory of the market. Traders and investors are watching closely, as these levels may determine whether the cryptocurrency continues its bull run or enters a more pronounced corrective phase.
