Long-Term Valuation Framework
Bitcoin could reach $2.9 million by 2050 as it becomes a settlement currency for global trade and gains traction among central bank reserves, according to analysts at VanEck.
The projection assumes a 15% compound annual growth rate and increasing adoption in both international and domestic commerce.
VanEck head of digital assets research Matthew Sigel and senior investment analyst Patrick Bush outlined the forecast in a note published Thursday.
Trade And Reserve Adoption Assumptions
Under VanEck’s base case, Bitcoin would settle between 5% and 10% of global international trade and around 5% of domestic trade by mid-century.
The analysts also estimated that central banks could allocate approximately 2.5% of their reserves to Bitcoin over time.
At a $2.9 million price, Bitcoin would represent about 1.66% of total global financial assets, according to their calculations.
Monetary Forces Driving The Thesis
Sigel and Bush identified global liquidity expansion and ongoing monetary debasement as the primary forces underpinning Bitcoin’s long-term appreciation.
“Bitcoin is not a tactical trade in this framework; it functions as a long-duration hedge against adverse monetary regime outcomes,” they wrote.
They added that while short-term price movements depend on liquidity cycles and leverage, structural weaknesses in sovereign debt systems support long-term value growth.
Scenario Analysis Highlights Range Of Outcomes
VanEck described $2.9 million as its base-case outcome for Bitcoin by 2050.
In a bearish scenario, the analysts modeled a 2% CAGR, resulting in a Bitcoin price of around $130,000.
Their bullish scenario assumes a 20% CAGR, which would push Bitcoin’s valuation to approximately $52.4 million.
Bitcoin’s Role In Global Trade
Bitcoin is already used in certain international trade flows, particularly in sanctioned economies such as Venezuela, Iran, and Russia.
However, adoption remains limited across G7 nations, where traditional fiat currencies continue to dominate settlement activity.
Data from global payment networks shows the U.S. dollar accounting for nearly half of international trade settlements, followed by the euro and British pound.
Comparing Bitcoin To Major Currencies
If Bitcoin were to capture a 5% to 10% share of international trade settlement, it would rival the current usage of the British pound.
Such adoption would place Bitcoin ahead of currencies like the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan in trade settlement terms.
The analysts argued that this shift would mark Bitcoin’s evolution from a speculative asset into a functional component of the global financial system.
Growth Expectations Adjusted Lower
The 15% CAGR assumed in VanEck’s current model represents a reduction from earlier projections.
In late 2024, the firm used a 25% CAGR when exploring scenarios involving a U.S. Bitcoin reserve.
Despite the lower growth assumption, VanEck maintains that Bitcoin’s long-term potential remains substantial under a trade and reserve adoption framework.
