XRP extended its recent downturn this week, trading around 11% lower than it did seven days ago.
The decline follows a series of bearish indicators suggesting that deeper losses may still be ahead for the token.
Technical analysis shows that XRP has been steadily losing ground since slipping below the $3 psychological level in October, creating conditions that now point toward a possible retreat to $1.55.
Market analysts note that multiple data points, including chart patterns and network activity, now align to indicate growing downside pressure.
Descending Triangle Breakdown Raises Risk of 45% Drop
XRP’s eight-hour chart recently confirmed a descending triangle formation, a pattern recognised for signaling continuation of an existing downtrend.
A descending triangle typically forms when a flat support level meets a downward-sloping line of resistance, with price movement tightening until a breakout occurs.
For XRP, that pattern completed when the token broke below its support zone at $2.20 on Monday, triggering expectations of a further retreat.
If the current $2 support gives way, the measured move from the triangle projects a potential fall to around $1.55 before the end of November, implying a drawdown of approximately 25% from present levels.
Earlier analysis had already warned that the token could slide to about $1.61 if it failed to maintain critical support.
Adding further weight to the bearish outlook, Glassnode’s cost-basis distribution heatmap highlights a large concentration of XRP acquired between $2.38 and $2.40.
With around 3.23 billion tokens purchased in that range, the area now represents significant resistance reinforced by the 100-day moving average and the triangle’s upper boundary.
Momentum Indicators Highlight Bearish Divergence
Technical pressure on XRP has also intensified due to a bearish divergence between its price and the relative strength index on the weekly chart.
Between November 2024 and July 2025, XRP continued to move higher within a rising channel, forming a series of higher highs.
However, during that same period, the weekly RSI slipped from 92 to 68, forming lower highs and signaling waning momentum.
“A divergence between rising prices and a falling RSI usually indicates weakness in the prevailing uptrend,” analysts note, often leading traders to increase selling at local peaks as profit-taking grows.
The RSI has since declined to 39, leaving technical conditions skewed in favor of continued downward movement.
In addition to weakening momentum, XRP is currently contending with notable overhead resistance from its 50-week SMA at $2.32, a level that may continue to limit upside attempts in the near term.
XRP Ledger Activity Drops Sharply
Beyond price action, fundamentals on the XRP Ledger show a pronounced contraction in network activity.
Glassnode data indicates daily active addresses have plunged dramatically from nearly 577,000 on June 14 to about 44,000 at the time of writing.
The steep drop suggests waning user participation and potentially declining confidence in XRP’s short-term trajectory.
New address creation has also fallen sharply, sliding from 13,500 on November 10 to around 4,000 daily.
Historically, diminishing activity on the network has been associated with stagnant or declining prices, largely because reduced activity often leads to lower liquidity and weaker buying momentum.
With on-chain data, technical indicators and supply concentration all aligning to the downside, analysts say XRP may face continued volatility and further losses in the weeks ahead.
