Bitcoin may be approaching the price range where market stress reaches its peak, according to André Dragosch, head of research for Bitwise in Europe.
Dragosch said the cryptocurrency’s critical “max pain” area sits between two major institutional cost-basis thresholds: around $84,000 for BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust and roughly $73,000 for MicroStrategy’s long-standing Bitcoin holdings.
He described this zone as where “fire-sale” conditions could emerge, representing a point where both retail and institutional sentiment may capitulate.
The upper bound of this range reflects the average acquisition price for BlackRock’s widely traded Bitcoin exchange-traded fund.
When Bitcoin’s market price nears or tests this level, ETF investors tend to reassess exposure, sometimes triggering heightened redemptions.
This dynamic has already appeared in recent flows.
IBIT posted its largest single-day outflow this week, as more than half a billion dollars exited the fund.
This loss contributed to several billion dollars in total outflows across U.S. Bitcoin ETFs over the past month.
Dragosch said this pattern indicates increasing risk aversion among institutions that were instrumental in Bitcoin’s strong performance earlier in 2025.
Meanwhile, MicroStrategy — now legally renamed Strategy — faces its own market pressure.
The company’s net asset value recently dipped below 1, which suggests that investors are valuing the company at less than the worth of the Bitcoin it holds.
Historically, this has been viewed as a sign of tightening liquidity and weakening confidence.
A retest of the company’s cost basis near $73,000 would likely intensify scrutiny and could provoke additional selling if broader conditions worsen.
Macroeconomic uncertainty is adding to the fragile environment.
The Federal Reserve’s December interest rate decision has become unusually difficult to predict, in part because a government shutdown delayed key economic data releases.
The absence of fresh labor information means policymakers have less clarity entering the meeting.
Expectations for a rate cut have fallen sharply, and investors are increasingly preparing for the possibility that the Fed will leave rates unchanged.
Such an outcome would preserve current liquidity constraints — the same backdrop that preceded Bitcoin’s sharp correction earlier in the month.
However, analysts note a potentially bullish underlying factor: stablecoin balances on exchanges have climbed to a record level.
Historically, rising stablecoin reserves have often preceded major Bitcoin rallies, as they represent sidelined capital ready to re-enter the market once conditions stabilize.
If the Fed refrains from cutting rates in December, Bitcoin may continue trading in a broad range between $60,000 and $80,000 into the end of the year.
Market direction is expected to hinge on shifts in liquidity, macroeconomic data flow, and institutional positioning around these key cost-basis levels.
