As Bitcoin price edges closer to the psychological $120K mark, traders and institutions alike are watching for signs of the next big breakout. With ETF inflows accelerating and long-term cycle models flashing green, is BTC preparing for a new leg up?
Bitcoin Price Faces Key Resistance
Bitcoin price is currently holding around $119,500, after gaining over 10% in just the past two weeks. The rally has been fueled by renewed investor optimism and consistent higher lows, suggesting a bullish structure forming on the daily chart.
Source: Tradingview
After briefly dipping below $106K in June, BTC bounced back strongly, reclaiming the $115K zone with high conviction. The current consolidation around $119K–$120K resembles previous “stalling zones” seen before major breakout candles, especially in the 2020–2021 bull market. On-chain volume has also started to rise again, indicating growing participation at current levels.
ETF Inflows Signal Renewed Institutional Demand
Spot ETFs appear to be playing a pivotal role in this phase. According to SoSoValue, daily net inflows recently hit $363 million, while total net assets across major Bitcoin ETFs have surged past $152 billion.
Source: SoSoValue
These flows have consistently correlated with upward moves in Bitcoin price over the past year, especially when breaking past psychological levels like $90K and $100K. The growing exposure of traditional finance to BTC through regulated ETFs may be reducing volatility while steadily applying upward pressure on price.
More importantly, the renewed interest comes after a quiet June—suggesting large investors are re-entering as the market shows technical strength.
A Clean Breakout Depends on the Weekly Close
While momentum is building, Bitcoin still needs to close a weekly candle above $120K to confirm a breakout. Historically, these levels tend to act as magnet zones—drawing liquidity but also triggering profit-taking if volume doesn’t follow through.
Should BTC secure a convincing close above this threshold, the next target zone lies between $130K and $140K, with minimal resistance in between. Failure to break out could lead to a short-term retest of the $113K–$115K support range.
For now, market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic. Traders are positioning for a move, but macro and ETF flows may determine how quickly it materializes.
The Final Act? Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle in Focus
Prominent trader Merlijn The Trader recently pointed out that Bitcoin has officially entered what he calls the “final act” of its 4-year cycle. According to this widely followed framework, each cycle consists of a 1-year correction (red) followed by 3 years of expansion (green).
Source: X
The theory has held up remarkably well since 2013, and if history rhymes, then 2025 could be the strongest year of the current cycle. That would imply a massive price expansion phase—possibly similar to 2017 or 2021—when BTC posted triple-digit percentage gains.
While no model is perfect, the alignment of ETF inflows, bullish technical patterns, and historical cycle timing is hard to ignore.
Final Thoughts: What This Means for Bitcoin Price
Bitcoin price is once again testing a major resistance level, but this time, the backdrop is different. Institutional flows are rising. On-chain data is healthy. Historical cycles are aligning.
The combination of technical structure, ETF momentum, and macro narrative makes this a defining moment for BTC in 2025. Whether or not the breakout happens this week, the underlying signals suggest that the market is gearing up for a powerful move—one that could take Bitcoin well beyond its current range.
For long-term investors, this may not be the top—it could just be the beginning of the next breakout leg.
